アジア成長研究所 6階 会議室
Wu Yanrui 西オーストラリア大学 経済学部教授
「The Distribution Dynamics of Energy Intensity in Chinese Cities」
This paper investigates the spatial dynamics of energy intensity in Chinese cities with panel data consisting of 286 prefectural-and-above level cities during the period 2002-2011. The analyses are conducted by employing a continuous dynamic distribution approach which takes account of economic size. The results support the existence of convergence in terms of energy intensity among Chinese cities during the sample period. However, bimodality is found in the long-term distribution using the full sample. It is also found that there is more persistence in cities with low energy intensity, but more mobility in cities with high energy intensity. The analyses also show that the dynamics of energy intensity are significantly different among various geographical, income, and environmental policy groups. Weighting by economic size does not change the convergence trend of energy intensity, but has significant influence on the long-term distribution. Neglecting economic size may overstate the energy reduction performance in Chinese cities. Furthermore, the conditional distribution analyses indicate that geographical location, income level, and city population size have a significant impact on the spatial distribution dynamics of energy intensity. However, the observed bimodality cannot be explained independently by one of the three factors. These results imply that more energy-saving measures should be promoted in cities which converge into high energy intensity clubs. In particular, high energy intensity cities with the tendency to increase their energy intensity should be targeted for more stringent energy reduction actions.
Keywords: Energy intensity; distribution dynamics; convergence; kernel estimation; Chinese cities.