北九州市大手町ビル6階 アジア成長研究所 会議室
万 広華（WAN GuangHua） アジア開発銀行研究所（ADBI）研究部長
「Structural Change and Income Distribution: Regional Inequality in China, 1952-2012」
This study explores the relationship between inequality and structural change by constructing a theoretical model, by developing an analytical methodology and by implementing a case study. The general equilibrium model we developed demonstrates that inequality exhibits an inverted U pattern as structural change proceeds from initial start to completion. Our analytical framework enables decomposition of a change in inequality into a component attributable to structural transformation and another to spatial concentration or spatial agglomeration. Applying the decomposition framework to data from China confirms the inverted U relationship between structural change and regional inequality. Major empirical findings include: (1) regional inequality in pre-reform China was broadly trendless while a rising trend emerged after reforms that began in late 1978; (2) structural transformation was the main driver of regional inequality before 2004 but spatial concentration or agglomeration became the dominant component after 2006; (3) The two components tended to reinforce each other until 1972 and became offsetting each other during 1973-1985; (4) the agricultural sector was always inequality-reducing while the service sector almost always dis-equalizing. The manufacturing sector accounted for more than half of total regional inequality before the mid-1990s, but this role was taken over by the service sector after mid-2000s; and (5) the service industry has been spatially diverging since early 1980s. By mid-2000s, it overtook the secondary industry as the most important contributor to regional inequality. From 1994 to 2003, all increases in total regional inequality came from the tertiary sector.