北九州市大手町ビル6階 アジア成長研究所 会議室
Philip Inyeob JI 韓国 東国大学（Dongguk University）経済学科 准教授
「Explosive Behavior in Housing Markets: Evidence from Australia, Singapore and Korea」
Using recently developed econometric procedures (Phillips, Wu and Yu, 2011; Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2015), we find evidence of temporary episodes of explosive behaviour in price-to-rent ratios for established houses, in five of Australia’s largest cities. One interpretation of our results is that stochastic, rational bubbles were a feature of Australia’s major housing markets; particularly during the early to mid-2000s. However, further analysis of each city’s price-to-rent ratio indicates a very different pattern of behaviour in Sydney and Perth to that experienced in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra. For the latter three cities, we present evidence suggesting the explosive root tests are likely capturing the effects of a one-time structural break in their respective price-to-rent ratios. In any event, based on the estimated timing of the explosive episodes in Australia’s housing markets, there is little evidence that what might be identified as house price bubbles had any important negative consequences for the wider economy. Despite the ability of the econometric procedures to provide a real-time signal of explosive behaviour, results from Australian housing markets, suggest policymakers need to be cautious in responding too aggressively to a positive signal from the tests. For Singapore, negative explosive behaviors have been observed driven by the rents, while Korea has experienced a limited magnitude of explosive periods followed by steady corrections.
三重野 文晴（MIENO Fumiharu） 京都大学東南アジア研究所 教授
「Determinants of Corporate Bond Issue in East Asia: A Demand Side View for Asian Bond Market Development」
This paper examines the current situation of the bond market development in ASEAN countries, confirming the basic facts that the external-financing has been generally inactive in corporations operating in the region; the commercial banks have tended to weaken their commitment to manufacturing sector, and major firms, particularly foreign firms have been unwilling to participate in the securities market. It also discusses the function of bond-financing by comparing with two other fundraising methods: financial intermediation and equity finance, and pointed the possibility that its development can be greatly influenced by factors on demand side of the fund, rather than supply side. The total bond outstanding has shown substantial expansion in most countries. However, it has been mostly led by the issuance of public bonds including of state-own enterprise. In bond issuance by private sector, there was extreme uneven distribution by industrial sectors; main issuers were the firms of infrastructure related sector, and financial sector, and the firms in manufacturing sector was not a majority. ased on these descriptive observations and inference, the paper estimates the determinants of bond issuing with private firms’ micro data in case of Thailand, Malaysia and Korea under the model on the information cost and the demand for long-term fund, finding that the demand factor is binding, while the information cost is minor, and that the demand for fund is relatively large in infrastructure and non-bank financial sectors. The conclusion is induced that the fund demand factor by real sector may be a key for further bond market development.