公益財団法人アジア成長研究所 6階 会議室
山田 浩之 氏
“The long-term causal effect of U.S. bombing missions on economic development: Evidence from Ho Chi Minh Trail and Xieng Khouang Province in Lao P.D.R. (co-authored with Takahiro Yamada (Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance)”
This paper investigates the long-term causal effect of massive U.S. bombing missions during the Vietnam War on later economic development in the case of Lao P.D.R. The empirical strategy relies on an instrumental variable approach. We exploit the distance between the centroid of the village-level administrative boundary and the heavily bombed targets, Ho Chi Minh Trail in the case of southern Laos or Xieng Khouang province in the case of northern Laos, as an instrument for the intensity of U.S. bombing missions. We use the three rounds of average nightlight strength data (1992, 2005 and 2013), and two rounds of population density data (1990 and 2005) as the outcome variables. The estimation results show no robust effect of U.S. bombing missions on economic development in the long term. Meanwhile, we find that the results do not necessarily support the conditional convergence hypothesis within a country although this could be Lao-specific.
内田 真輔 氏
“Be Cautious with the Precautionary Principle: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident”
This paper provides a large scale, empirical evaluation of unintended effects from invoking the precautionary principle after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. After the accident, all nuclear power stations ceased operation and nuclear power was replaced by fossil fuels, causing an exogenous increase in electricity prices. This increase led to a reduction in energy consumption, which caused an increase in mortality during very cold temperatures. We estimate that the increase in mortality from higher electricity prices outnumbers the mortality from the accident itself, suggesting the decision to cease nuclear production has contributed to more deaths than the accident itself.