北九州市大手町ビル6階 アジア成長研究所 会議室
櫻川 昌哉 慶應義塾大学経済学部 教授
タイトル：「China and Japan in the Global Economy」
The world economic centre of gravity is shifting from west to east. Without major disruption, Asia is likely to produce half of the world GDP by 2050 becoming the centre of international trade, investment, and finance. Still, it will be difficult for Asia to take leadership economically, politically, and militarily without strong foundations for technological advancement and institutional quality. The US and its western allies have played a dominant role in the international system after the World Word II based on the multilateral arrangement: UN, WTO, the World Bank, IMF, and others. The growing discrepancy between leadership and economic power has undermined the effectiveness of these post-war institutions. In East Asia, China and Japan are competing for the regional leadership. This paper argues if and how China and Japan can eliminate historical, political, and economic constraints in taking a leadership in Asia. Discussions cover the broad topics on globalization, international rules, BRI, the ADB/AIIB problem, the role of ASEAN as a block, the internationalisation of the Yen and Yuan, and the Asian monetary integration. Japan has been largely autarkic when the west forced the opening of major ports in the middle of the 19th century. Following the Meiji Restoration, Japan has ascended to become an industrial power in Asia and attempted to establish the hegemony in Asia. Since its defeat in the World Word II, Japan has been militarily subject to the US through the US-Japan military alliance. If Japan’s decision making is controlled or constrained by the US, other Asian countries may not trust Japan as a leader. Therefore, the greatest challenge for Japan’s leadership is to become a “normal country,” which makes all its own decisions independently for its own interest.